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Climate Science Politics At Full Speed

Are governments working to protect the political consensus around climate change at the expense of truth?

By Theo Vermaelen, INSEAD Professor of Finance

The difference between science and religion is that science is supposed to make testable predictions. Simply showing that carbon emissions are correlated with global temperatures using historical data proves nothing. The stock market is also correlated with global temperatures (it went up a lot in the 20th century and then flattened out this century) but that does not mean that bringing down the stock market will reduce global warming (although I bet some people would love this idea). Also having a strong theory that the two variables should be correlated is not sufficient if the goal is to show that one variable iscompletely explained by the other. For example, every finance professor accepts that, ceteris paribus, when interest rates rise, stock prices should fall. But that does not mean that the stock market is only driven by interest rates.

L’IPCC conferma: stiamo cambiando il clima del pianeta

Secondo il nuovo rapporto dell’Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, frutto del lavoro di quasi 2500 esperti, il riscaldamento del clima della Terra è inequivocabile e i cambiamenti non hanno precedenti su una scala temporale che va dalle decine di anni ai millenni. Il rapporto, presentato oggi a Stoccolma, conferma inoltre le responsabilità delle attività umane. La nostra specie sta modificando il clima della Terra in modo evidente. Questa frase lapidaria ha annunciato la presentazione a Stoccolma del V Assessment Report (AR5) dell’Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) che ha aggiornato le basi scientifiche del cambiamento climatico.

Warming Up for Another Climate-Change Report

At a closed-door meeting in Stockholm this week, each paragraph of a document written by scientists is being projected onto large screens. Delegations from scores of nations participate in the editing: Words will be substituted, emphasis will be added, entire sentences may well be inserted or deleted.

Anticipazioni sul prossimo rapporto dell’IPCC

di Carlo Carraro

Mancano solo poche ore alla pubblicazione ufficiale della prima delle tre sezioni del Quinto Rapporto di Valutazione dell’ IPCC, l’attesissimo volume che raccoglie lo stato dell’arte a livello scientifico delle conoscenze globali sul clima. In quanto membro del Bureau dell’IPCC e Vice Presidente del Working Group III ho avuto accesso in anticipo al rapporto. I contenuti delle bozze del rapporto sono trapelati in più di un’occasione nel corso dell’anno (si vedano i precedenti post sull’argomento: “IPCC: la bozza trapelata che invade il web” e “Polemiche sul (futuro) Quinto Rapporto dell’IPCC”), e i media di tutto il mondo non hanno mai perso l’occasione di fare notizia con stralci di informazioni rubate qua e là.

Uruguayan President focuses on climate change, environment in UN Assembly speech

In his address to the United Nations General Assembly, the President of Uruguay today urged the international community to strengthen efforts to preserve the planet for future generations. Speaking to world leaders gathered at the General Debate of the Assembly’s 68th session, President José Mujica said that “the world cries out for global rules that respect the achievements of science.”

The 5 stages of climate denial are on display ahead of the IPCC report

The fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report is due out on September 27th, and is expected to reaffirm with growing confidence that humans are driving global warming and climate change. In anticipation of the widespread news coverage of this esteemed report, climate contrarians appear to be in damage control mode, trying to build up skeptical spin in media climate stories. Just in the past week we’ve seen: Interestingly, these pieces spanned nearly the full spectrum of the 5 stages of global warming denial.